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The pioneering science linking climate to weather disasters

PARIS, France — Extreme weather is becoming more destructive as the world warms, but how can we say that climate change intensified the fires in Los Angeles, typhoons in the Philippines, or flooding in Spain?

That question was once difficult question to answer. But thanks to the pioneering field of attribution science, experts can quickly examine the possible influence of global warming on a specific weather event.

The fast-growing field began two decades ago and is now firmly established, but it is still sometimes hampered by a lack of data.

After disaster strikes, an attribution study can quickly help tell governments, industry and ordinary people if climate change played a role.

"It's important for citizens, for decision-makers, and it's also very important for scientists, because with each case study, we learn new things about our models, our observations and the problems we encounter with them," said Robert Vautard, a leading scientist with the UN's climate expert panel, who has supported the development of attribution studies.

In the future, these studies could also play a growing role in legal disputes.

Already a 2021 scientific study was used by a Peruvian farmer in his battle against German electricity giant RWE, which he accused of playing a role in the melting of a glacier.

That research found the glacier's retreat was "entirely attributable" to global warming.

- Different approaches -

The main questions attribution studies seek to answer are: did the warmer climate make a flood, heatwave, fire or storm more likely, and did it increase its ferocity?

Several groups have developed methods that have been independently validated by other researchers.

The most active and influential group of researchers is World Weather Attribution (WWA), whose work is often reported in the media.

Using computer models, scientists can compare a simulation of a particular weather event against a world in which warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities was not present.

In their most recent study, WWA researchers found that climate change increased the risk of the Los Angeles wildfires, which have killed at least 29 people and destroyed more

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