The week ahead
Today is the 35th day of the year. February is 14% done, Q1 is 39% complete, and we’re 10% of our way through 2025. Trump has been president for 25 days. The PSEi is down 7% since he took office, and down 10% since the start of FY25. The tariffs that Trump has levied against Canada and Mexico take effect later today and the reckless de-integration of North America’s economic order could have disastrous long-term consequences for the US economy.
>PH: The only thing on our calendar this week is the Philippine Statistics Authority will release our January CPI and inflation data tomorrow (Wednesday).
>International: The next 24 hours will be very interesting in North America as Trump’s tariffs take effect at midnight (their time). That’s the middle of the night for us, but by the time we wake up tomorrow, we’ll start to see some reactions and we’ll get a chance to see how their markets react to the chaos in real-time through the day.
MB bottom-line: The roll-out of these tariffs has been sloppy, and the reaction from anyone not on the White House payroll has been harsh and immediate. Still, it’s hard to tell if Trump is simply spending all of his enormous leverage for some short-term gain that will only modestly alter the status quo, or if this is indeed the point of the wedge for some long-term plan that will only gain in aggression and ferocity as the months pass. He’s a player willing to mash the buttons of the most powerful character in the game. If I had to bet, though, I’d say that this is more indicative of a new normal rather than just a short-term squeeze. Watch closely what happens to gold, the US Dollar, and bitcoin. Where is the money going? What will China do in response, and how will the spice (goods) continue to flow? Last time, China dodged tariffs by routing through other SE Asian nations like Vietnam. Our inability to capture that trade left us in Vietnam’s rearview mirror. What’s the strat this time around? Will President Marcos have a plan to capitalize?
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