Carina kills 5 in Batangas; 4 still missing
MANILA, Philippines — At least five people died in Batangas due to heavy rains and landslides brought by Typhoon Carina.
IPO latest news
More typhoons needed for Angat to reach high water level
MANILA, Philippines — At least three to four typhoons are needed for Angat Dam to finally reach the normal high water level despite the intense rains brought by the southwest monsoon that was enhanced by Typhoon Carina, according to the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS).
Rains slightly raise Bulacan dams’ elevation
MALOLOS, Philippines — Rains that prevailed over Luzon in the past few days have slightly raised the water level in Angat and Ipo dams in Bulacan.
NexGen IPO is today
NexGen [XG 1.68] [link] will hit the open market today for the first time after a successful IPO offer period. XG is a renewable energy subsidiary of Dexter Tiu’s Pure Energy Holdings and is a sister company of Repower Energy Development [REDC 5.50, up 6.0%; 789% avgVol]. Reports indicate that demand was strong enough for XG’s IPO stock to require exercise of the over-allotment option to satisfy subscription applications, but there was no indication that demand exceeded the over-allotment amount. XG will begin trading this morning with a stabilization fund that will run through August 15.
AREIT declares stable Q2 dividend
AREIT [AREIT 37.10 ?1.5%; 117% avgVol] [link] declared a Q2/24 dividend of P0.56, payable on August 11 to shareholders of record as of July 26. The dividend has an annualized yield of 6.04% based on the previous closing price, which is 0% smaller than AREIT's pre-dividend annualized yield of 6.04%. The total amount of the dividend is P1,326 million, but the company did not provide the applicable distribution income for the period. Relative to AREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased AREIT's total stock and dividend return to 68.3%, up from its pre-dividend total return of 66.22%. AREIT is up 11% YTD. The Q2/24 dividend matches AREIT’s record dividend that it declared in the first quarter of 2024, and is 5.6% larger than the dividend that it declared in the same quarter last year.MB BOTTOM-LINE: The king continues its reign as the top REIT in the land. Yes, AREIT is the most expensive REIT on the market in terms of its price-to-distributable income multiple (15x), but there’s a reason why investors are willing to pay more for this REIT’s income stream, and that boils down to stable growth. AREIT grows its dividend over time, and that causes the stock’s price to rise over time to compensate. Market observers will note that this stock price increase is not a straight line, and not without its significant dumps: remember back in November when AREIT crashed down into the ?28/share range when Ayala Land [ALI 29.60 ?0.3%; 77% avgVol] was conducting block sales to facilitate growth? I took that as an opportunity to sell underperforming assets and load up. Was I right to do that? Absolutely, if you measure the trade by today’s price. But the long-term value of my bet will depend on the AREIT management team. Will they continue to outperform the market and deliver stable growth? Is the inflation monster dead or just sleeping?
The week ahead
All eyes will be on the US markets Monday morning (Tuesday our time) to see how investors will react to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at one of his political rally stops over the weekend. With that in mind, here’s what I have on the calendar and what I’m watching this week.> PH: The only thing on my schedule is the IPO of NexGen [XG] tomorrow. According to InsiderPH, the IPO was fully sold and required some quota from the over-allotment option to satisfy the excess demand for the shares.> International: The European Central Bank will meet on July 18 to set interest rates.MB BOTTOM-LINE: More than anything, the attempted assassination will be a great chance for you to observe your news feeds and evaluate your own media consumption habits. Take note of the channels that tried to introduce you to unsubstantiated engagement bait (I’m looking at you, X), or to channels that were flooded by low-value AI-generated infospam (Facebook, you need to do better). Did you click on anything just because it seemed ridiculous? That’s just human nature, but the algos all saw that and curated what they served you next to try to get you to do it again. Just as you should construct a fairly rigid trading strategy to prevent the worst (and most predictable) aspects of human nature from leading you down paths that cause you to act against your own best interests, you should have a similar apparatus for obtaining and consuming information to prevent the same human weaknesses from leading you to pollute your own thinking with trash news.
The week ahead
Price pops in the fixed-income market seem to show speculators starting to place bets that June’s slowing inflation could give the BSP enough cover to pivot and begin lowering rates. Let’s take a look at what this week has in store.PH: Monday is the last day of the NexGen [XG] IPO offer period ahead of its IPO on July 16th. Premium Leisure [PLC suspended] will then delist on Tuesday after a successful tender offer and delisting petition by PLC’s parent company, Belle Corp [BEL 2.41 ?1.6%; 113% avgVol].International: Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, will testify in front of the US Senate and Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday, the Central Bank of Malaysia will set its interest rate, and then on Friday morning, we’ll get the US CPI data for June.MB BOTTOM-LINE: I feel drawn to paying attention to the macroeconomic side of things right now, as it feels like we’re at an inflection point between the tight monetary policy we’ve seen since the start of the inflation crisis and whatever loosening we’ll get this year and next. Whether a central bank moves to lower interest rates to prevent a recession or because their country’s economic metrics simply don’t support keeping rates at this plateau, it will be interesting to see how the differences in approach impact the results that each country will experience. Just like we saw with COVID, there are real-world consequences for the country as a whole that follow from the government’s policy decisions, and my bet is that those consequences are not going to be felt equally between the upper, middle, and lower classes within each country. Any bets on who is going to get the worst of it?
What makes Betancourt tick
While Joe Betancourt, the former Charlotte Hornets scout who nearly brought Johnny Abarrientos to the NBA in 1997, is busy investing his millions in the stock market, guaranteed commercial paper and IPOs, he’s not losing sight of what makes him tick – his love for sports.