‘13% of structures wrecked if major quake hits NCR’

MANILA, Philippines —  Ten to 13 percent of structures in Metro Manila would collapse if a 7.2-magnitude earthquake occurs, Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. said yesterday.

High-rise buildings are not included since these are new, Solidum said.

“We should not only look at informal settlements. We need to focus on non-engineered buildings,” he said.

Solidum affirmed former Office of Civil Defense administrator Alexander Pama’s statement that up to 46,993 casualties and 156,000 injured people should be expected if the “big one” jolts Metro Manila.

“Around 25,000 to 30,000 people would be very critically injured, meaning the injury could lead to death,” Solidum said on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay.

Solidum recalled that he and Pama formulated a master plan in 2004, during the presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

“My suggestion is to expand the preparedness beyond Metro Manila, especially in nearby provinces,” Solidum said.

Regions 3 and 4 could also be affected by the earthquake, Solidum said.

“What we are monitoring is the West Valley Fault. It is the worst-case scenario. Its last movement was 400 years ago,” he said.

A JICA study showed that the potential impact of an earthquake along the West Valley Fault segment could be catastrophic, with around 50,000 casualties expected in Metro Manila.