187th DBCC Joint Statement

Review of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Assumptions

and Fiscal Program (FY) 2024 to 2028

April 4, 2024

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has recalibrated the government’s medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, fiscal program, and growth targets for FYs 2024 to 2028 to reflect domestic and global developments.

This recalibration will ensure that the government’s targets respond more directly to the needs of the Filipino people and that strategic growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation is being pursued for sustainable and inclusive development.

Macroeconomic Assumptions

The DBCC has approved the following revisions to the macroeconomic assumptions based on emerging data:

Indicator

2024

2025

2026 - 2028

Inflation (%)

2.0 - 4.0

2.0 - 4.0

2.0 - 4.0

Dubai crude oil (USD/bbl)

70 - 90

65 - 85

65 - 85

Foreign exchange rate (Php/USD)

55.00 - 57.00

55.00 - 58.00

55.00 - 58.00

Exports of goods, BPM6 (%)

3.0

6.0

6.0

Imports of goods, BPM6 (%)

4.0

7.0

8.0

Notes: bbl = barrel, BPM6 = Balance of Payments 6th edition, PHP= Philippine peso, USD = US dollar

Full-year average inflation rate for 2023 settled at 6.0 percent as the country grappled with the second order effects of high commodity prices from geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions from major rice-exporting countries, and tight supply of key commodities.

Following the proactive monetary policy actions undertaken by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the strategies being implemented by the Administration, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook, inflation rate targets were retained at 2.0 to 4.0 percent for 2024 until 2028. To ensure that inflation remains within the target band, the government will accelerate the implementation of strategies under its Reduce Emerging Inflation Now (REIN) Plan.

Meanwhile, the assumptions for the Dubai crude oil price were maintained at USD 70 to 90 per barrel for 2024, and USD 65 to 85 per barrel for 2025 to 2028. This reflects the latest futures prices and forecasts that suggest tempered global crude oil prices over the medium term.

The peso-dollar exchange rate assumptions were narrowed to Php 55 to Php 57 against