China’s ax-wielding coast guard tests limits in South China Sea

The latest South China Sea clash saw China’s coast guard wielding axes and a Philippine sailor lose his thumb in an escalation that underscored Beijing’s willingness to see how far it can push Manila — and its allies in Washington.
The Philippines Armed Forces called the June 17 moves by China — which included hurling rocks and using knives to puncture an inflatable craft trying to resupply its forces — a “brutal assault” and said the Chinese sailors acted like pirates.The US State Department said China’s actions were “reckless” and threatened regional peace and stability.
But that was as far as the public response went, with neither the Philippines nor Washington seeking to exacerbate a crisis that has been building for years.
For now, at least, Manila appears to be exercising more caution.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr told soldiers in a speech afterwards that he was “not in the business to instigate wars” and his foreign ministry on Wednesday sent a diplomatic note to China seeking dialogue.
The government’s executive secretary, Lucas Bersamin, initially said the whole episode was “probably a misunderstanding or an accident” and said the country would give advanced notice of such missions in the future, a move seen as appeasing China’s demands.

Philippines Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro quickly walked back Bersamin’s comments, vowing the country wouldn’t publish its plans to send resupply missions to a decrepit World War II-era ship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal. And video footage showed the collision was no accident.

But the incident and officials’ subsequent remarks sowed doubt over Manila’s stance and sparked debate over how long it can push back on China without more support from an American ally distracted by wars in Europe and the Middle East.
“China’s escalating violence reflects Beijing’s confidence the US will do nothing more than make another strong statement,” said Carl Schuster, a former operations director at US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. “I suspect President Marcos also realizes that the US support is limited. So with little hope of US support he has to find a way to reduce tensions.”
China was unbowed, sticking with its