New Game Plan: What Philippines can do after the June 17 sea clash

The Philippines needs to re-examine its approach to the South China Sea. While the June 17 incident was seen by some as a debacle, it was probably an attempt to test a new approach.

Since 2023, Manila has been utilizing a multi-pronged transparency approach, which appears to primarily focus on naming and shaming China. It was driven by an untested assumption that Beijing is strongly influenced by the reputational costs of its illegal and coercive activities. What was apparent in the past year is that Manila has not achieved any substantial gains in its fight for control of Ayungin Shoal.

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The events of June 17 may also be a signal of Manila’s efforts to become less predictable to Chinese forces. Before this, Manila had all but constrained its options by telegraphing its responses to every tactical-level provocation of Beijing. Early on, a Philippine spokesperson announced that the military won’t be used for operations. Appearing to be seizing the moral high ground, a spokesperson announced that its coast guard would not follow Beijing’s example on the use of water cannons.

Pronouncements on potential triggers to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, or MDT, have also made headlines. These announcements may have played into Beijing’s hands as it started to become even harsher in its response without crossing the “red lines" Manila drew. On the other hand, Manila’s partners increased their presence in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone but fell short of demonstrating overt support to the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Beijing appeared to be undeterred by the actions of Manila and the West and further intensified its pseudo-blockade of BRP Sierra Madre.

Partner fatigue was also evident among those who supported Manila. The groundswell of international support expected of transparency did not fully materialize. It was to a large extent limited to “Western countries” as well as India, Japan and South Korea, and they are becoming content with only issuing statements but not taking the risk on behalf of the Philippines. None of Manila’s immediate neighbors within the Association of Southeast