Philippines: Is the unstoppable Marcos-Duterte alliance headed for divorce?

With his signature bombast, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte told a crowd of cheering supporters in January that his successor was a drug addict. The man who replaced him, Ferdinand «Bongbong» Marcos Jr, shot back, saying the former leader must have hurled the insult in an opioid-fuelled haze.

That was the strongest sign yet of a crack in the alliance that catapulted Mr Marcos to a historic win in 2022. His ally: Vice-President Sara Duterte, the former president's daughter.

From the start, analysts had predicted a divorce between the two most powerful Philippine political dynasties. The likelihood only increased amid public spats and growing differences over political agendas.

And yet splitting up might not be an option for Mr Marcos and Ms Duterte, who sold themselves to voters as the «UniTeam».

Cracks in the alliance

Sara Duterte had been leading opinion polls as a possible presidential candidate when she announced in 2021 that she was running for the vice-presidency.

Her father made his displeasure clear. She was seen as his political heir — she was the mayor of Davao City, a post Mr Duterte held for many years before he became president in 2016.

But her alliance with Mr Marcos, the son of the disgraced former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, did not surprise analysts. They said both candidates risked defeat by splitting their support — hers in the south, his in the north — if they ran against each other. Together, they united their respective strongholds and won a clear majority.

Many expect Ms Duterte to run for president in 2028. The constitution bars Mr Marcos from seeking a second six-year term — a restriction that he is trying to remove, the Dutertes allege.

Mr Marcos says he supports reforms that will ease rules for foreign businesses, drawing more investment and jobs to the South East Asian nation of 100 million people. But his critics say it is a «sinister» ploy to usher in political changes that will allow him to run for the top job again. The fact that the term-limit was imposed in 1986, after his father was ousted from power by a popular revolt, has only added to the chorus of protest.

But this is not the only source of