The week ahead

We have a pretty quiet week on the schedule which is great because I feel like there’s a ton of political news flying around (both here and in the US) that I simply cannot avoid following at the moment.

> PH:  The only thing on the schedule is the end of the Petron preferred shares offer period on Friday.

> International:  I’m going to be paying mild interest to the soundbites coming out of the US relating to the upcoming interest rate decision next week, including the reactions to the jobless claims report that will come out on Thursday/Friday, and the reactions to whatever the European Central Bank decides to do with its rates on Friday morning.

MB BOTTOM-LINE:  The US election in November could have serious consequences for the Philippine economy. The Duterte administration fully failed to capitalize on the geopolitical chaos that we experienced during Trump’s presidency, particularly with respect to the trade war Trump initiated with China and all of the knock-on circumvention opportunities that our neighbors (especially Vietnam) managed to both secure and leverage into long-lasting gains. Instead of trying to lock down the unprecedented shift in manufacturing away from China, Duterte’s government was focused on building its shady POGO legacy and spending all of its political capital catfighting with oligarchs. While a second Trump presidency is not currently the most likely outcome, November is a long way away. From everything I’ve seen and heard, Trump doesn’t seem prepared to be any less chaotic should he find a way to win a second term. If he beats the odds and is sworn in as president in 2025, will the Marcos Administration learn from Duterte’s mistakes, or will we once again fail to create lasting value in the resulting chaos?

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