What next after killing of Hamas chief Haniyeh?

JERUSALEM, undefined — The killing of Palestinian militant group Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran could embolden hardliners in the Islamist movement and risks retaliations against Israel, analysts say.

Almost 10 months into the latest Gaza war, with no ceasefire deal in sight, here is what to expect.

After the overnight strike in the Iranian capital that Hamas has blamed on Israel, two names have been floated around to replace Haniyeh.

Neither are his deputy, as his number two Saleh al-Aruri was killed in January in a strike in Lebanon blamed on Israel.

The first contender is Hamas political bureau member Musa Abu Marzuk, whose stances have been similar to Haniyeh's.

More moderate than the armed branch of Hamas, he has advised the movement to accept a future Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders that followed Israel's capture of Palestinian territories in the West Bank, including east Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip.

He has represented the Islamist movement in several rounds of indirect talks with Israel.

In the 1990s, he was arrested while living in the United States over allegedly facilitating funding for Hamas' armed wing. He has since lived in Jordan, Egypt and Qatar.

The second possible contender is Khalil al-Haya, the political bureau's number two in Gaza who is close to the armed wing's chief Yahya Sinwar.

Haya briefly led Hamas lawmakers in parliament after it won an absolute majority in the chamber in 2006, before a fragile power-sharing arrangement with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's Fatah movement ruptured and Hamas took over Gaza the following year.

He is a fervent defender of armed resistance against Israel, and lost several members of his family during an 2007 Israeli air strike.

Some observers also say Khaled Meshaal, the previous head of Hamas, could return to lead the movement.

An official within Hamas, who wished to remain anonymous, told AFP that Hamas would "overcome this crisis".

Israel "has previously assassinated great leaders like the movement's leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, and it only made Hamas stronger" said the source referring to the 2004 killing in Gaza.

Joost Hiltermann, Middle East programme director at the