Ben Diokno, Mr. Optimism

Amid increasing global headwinds and unprecedented challenges to the Philippine economy, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, the head of President Marcos Jr.’s economic team, seems to me, to be under siege.

There is loose talk, in viber and online media, Ben would be replaced, by Ralph Recto, the current deputy House speaker. Ralph, 59, who is a friend, is known for three things: competence, compassion and hard work. He did well as economic planning secretary, for a year, 2008-2009, under president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, before he ran for senator and won.

President Marcos Jr. should, however, be fair to Ben Diokno, 75, a Batangueño, like Ralph. He is a good man and has rendered distinguished public service in 40 years under four presidents. He should be told whether he is coming or going.

In the meantime, DOF chief Ben remains optimistic about the Philippine economy’s bright prospects. His optimism is shared by global experts.

The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and AMRO+3 – all are unanimous that the Philippines will grow the fastest among its ASEAN+6 peers this year and in 2024.

“We are on track with our goals in the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF),” says Diokno. “And in a sea of downgrades globally, the Philippines continues to maintain its investment grade credit ratings.”

Reports Diokno: “The economy will grow by around 6 percent this year, 6.5 percent next year. Inflation will settle within the target range of 2-4 percent next year. We will reach upper middle income status in 2025.”

The budget deficit to GDP ratio will be below target in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, Diokno concedes. Gross international reserves will settle in the neighborhood of $100 billion or 7-8 months of imports and payments; the perceived doctrine is that three months’ worth of imports and payments are enough.

The DOF chief says the banking system is adequately financed. “In past crises, the banking system was part of the problem; now it is a source of strength.”

Inflation averaged 6.6 percent in the first nine months of 2023 and has refused to go below that. As a result, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has raised its policy