Fewer typhoons this year due to El Niño, says PAGASA

THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday said the country may experience below average tropical cyclones (TCs) this year due to the El Niño phenomenon.

Ana Liza Solis, chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said that the 13 to 19 projected number of TCs this year is well below the annual average of 19 to 20.

Solis, who is also the assistant chief of PAGASA’s Weather Services, attributed the below average TCs this year to the El Niño, a phenomenon that increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions that may lead to dry spells and drought.

“As of now, we continue to experience the effects of El Niño, so there is a possibility of 13 to 19 tropical cyclones as of now,” she said during the “Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon” public briefing, adding: “This means there is a possibility of below average tropical cyclones. Our average tropical cyclones in a year is 19 to 20.”

Solis said two to five of the tropical cyclones may be experienced during the first quarter of the year.

“From July to December, there will be around 11 to 14 tropical cyclones. If we are going to add these, there will be around 13 to 19 (tropical cyclones this year),” she said.

The number is still high compared to the 11 tropical cyclones that hit the country last year, the last of which – severe tropical storm “Kabayan” – struck in December.

There were no deaths reported due to Kabayan, but the calamity affected 112,015 families or 425,866 individuals in six regions, mostly in the Caraga.

Due to El Niño, Solis said there is also a possibility that the warm and dry season this year, which will be from March to May, “could be the one of the warmest” that the country would experience “because historically, during El Niño years, that’s when we record high temperature.”

She said temperature may reach as high as 40 degrees Celsius.

“The possible 40 degrees is not in the entire country. Usually, we are going to experience that in Cagayan Valley region,” she added.