How a US-China nuclear showdown threatens the Philippines

MANILA, Philippines — A nuclear conflict between the United States and China in the South China Sea could spill over to the Philippines, even if it is not a direct target, an analyst warns.

The Philippines' proximity to Taiwan and the South China Sea as well as the US troops' access to the Philippine military bases raise the risk of the country being drawn into a conflict between the two superpowers, said Elizabeth Suh, research associate at the German Institute for Foreign and Security Affairs.

“There is a scenario of nuclear escalation within the South China Sea, not because the US would use nuclear weapons to defend the Philippines, but rather because direct conflict between China and the United States about their strategic interests and their nuclear forces could happen,” Suh said, during a public lecture on Wednesday, September 18. 

“The Philippines would not be a target, but the use of nuclear weapons targets indiscriminately," the researcher added. She explained that the "humanitarian consequences" of a nuclear exchange in the region would affect the country.  

China has expanded its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. In July, it said it had abandoned its nuclear arms control talks with the US to protest Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan. 

Located around 160 kilometers from Batanes, Taiwan is even closer to the Philippines than China and has become an important foreign policy issue to Manila.

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Observers believe the growing threat of a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan remains the most likely flashpoint in the region. Beijing sees the self-ruled island as a rogue nation and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. 

The Philippines' decision to grant the US access to four additional military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in 2023 drew sharp criticism from China. The Chinese ambassador in Manila even warned that the new sites were "just a stone's throw away from Taiwan." 

Suh said the Philippines’ strategic location within the western Pacific explains why the US — the main arms provider and a key ally of