It’s getting hot in here!
The heat lately has been impossible to ignore. El Niño looms over the Philippines. It brings with it a host of extreme weather events, such as drought drastically decreasing rainfall by up to 60 percent and scorching heat waves that are projected to persist across the entire archipelago until May 2024. We are all witnesses to its terrible inescapable effects. Sweltering heat surpassing 42 degrees Celsius in certain places, for instance, has suspended classes across 5,000 Philippine schools in April 2024’s first week, interrupting the education of our 3.6 million students. Cebu City declared a state of water crisis. Government agencies state that water rationing in Metro Manila is not yet needed as supplies remain sufficient for now, but nonetheless forewarn it may be on our horizon. If we fail to formulate sustainable solutions and bungle implementation, then we necessarily compromise Philippine economic, energy, food and water security.
El Niño economics must be carefully considered as its effects are pervasive and potent. Like the temperature, March 2024 inflation rate similarly rose. Government agencies highlight that the 3.7 percent inflation rate is far lower than last year’s 7.6 percent in March 2023, and falls within our 2 percent to 4 percent inflation target range. The devils, however, are in the details.
While the March 2024 inflation rate is at 3.7 percent overall, the Philippine Statistics Authority-reported inflation rate for the bottom 30 percent of income households is at a painful 4.6 percent. Filipinos are hurting, and the poorest are bearing the worst of it. It is thus no wonder that recent surveys reveal that Filipinos’ top concern right now is perceived uncontrolled inflation. “Food and alcoholic beverages” continue to be the main contributor to overall inflation, contributing 80.6 percent.
Among the food groups, 103.2 percent share was attributable to “cereals and cereal products” which includes bread, flour and – most importantly – rice. Currently, Department of Agriculture Secretary Laurel himself admits that rice prices are not expected to go down due to El Niño’s effects, estimated at a staggering P2.76 billion. At such a critical
