Possible cyclone could enter PAR as 'Simbang Gabi' starts — PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — PAGASA is closely monitoring a developing low pressure area (LPA) situated east of Mindanao, a weather disturbance that shows potential for intensification into a tropical depression.

There are indications it could enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Saturday.

The LPA was last seen 1,225 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao, according to DOST-PAGASA weather specialist Obet Badrina in a forecast shortly before 5 a.m.

"Based on our last satellite images, [the LPA] is still outside the Philippine area of responsibility," said Badrina on Saturday morning in Filipino.

"It could enter the PAR this Saturday, and we are not discounting the possibility of it intensifying into a tropical storm."

PAGASA predicted one tropical cyclone before Christmas and possibly another before the year ends.

Badrina's forecast came as the traditional nine-day Simbang Gabi (Misa de Gallo) began early Saturday morning, with Catholics flocking to churches until Christmas eve.

"Whether it becomes a tropical cyclone or not, we expect that the low pressure area... will bring rains especially starting tomorrow, particularly in the eastern section of Mindanao and Visayas," the PAGASA official added.

"It could also be the case that, because of the expected shear line in the next few days, parts of Bicol Region could experience some rains."

If the low pressure area strengthens into a cyclone and enters the PAR, it will be named "Kabayan." This could be the 11th cyclone to enter the region in 2023.