Prepare for war

The tension between China and the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea has again accelerated with the increasing harassment of Philippine ships. The Philippines’ strong stand against these Chinese incursions has elicited support from other countries, especially Western powers who are also determined to stop further Chinese expansion.

In a recent state visit to Australia, President Bongbong Marcos was invited to speak to the Australian Parliament. Although there were protests because of human rights abuses in the Philippines, this again is a reminder that the West pays more attention to its allies against a common enemy.

This is reminiscent of the martial law years when the American presidents supported the government of President Marcos Sr. because he was seen as an ally in the fight against communism. 

Any analysis of the current situation raises the urgent question of whether this tension could lead to accidental conflicts which could lead to armed conflict. There is a high degree of probability that this will eventually happen.

The scariest scenario is whether these accidental armed conflicts will lead not only to a war, but worse, to a nuclear war. For students of geopolitics, history shows that a US-Chinese war will not go nuclear. In the more than seven decades of conflicts since World War II which included at least one nuclear power, nuclear weapons have never been used.

During the Cold War, the two nuclear powers, USA and Russia, engaged in wars in Africa, Asia and even Latin America. These wars incurred high human and military costs such as the ones in Korea and Vietnam. However, despite this bloody and protracted war, the nuclear powers avoided the use of nuclear weapons. Today, Russia, a nuclear power, in its war with Ukraine, has avoided using nuclear weapons even though Russia has paid an enormous price in this conflict.

A geopolitical explanation for this is that the idea of mutually assured destruction will deter the use of nuclear weapons even during a war. It is still very possible, however, that a great power conflict between United States and China will still take place.

There are many ways that a war between China and the United States