'Russian roulette': How China is playing a dangerous game with Philippines in South China Sea

The South China Sea, a vital and strategic maritime region, has become a hotbed of geopolitical tensions involving territorial disputes among several nations, most notably between China and the Philippines. The involvement of the United States, as a key ally of the Philippines, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Here, we address some frequently asked questions to help explain the ongoing conflict and its broader implications.

In the contested waters of the South China Sea, a dangerous escalation is unfolding as China has intensified its maritime maneuvers against the Philippines, actions that significantly heighten the risk of drawing the United States into a direct conflict.

Through a series of aggressive encounters, China's coast guard and maritime militia have employed tactics aimed at undermining the Philippines' capability to supply and maintain a military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal, a territory both nations claim but lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, in early March, a Philippine boat became the target of Chinese aggression when two coast guard ships unleashed high-pressure water cannons against it, causing substantial damage and preventing the vessel from delivering supplies to the outpost. This incident was not isolated; subsequent encounters followed a similar pattern, with one particularly egregious episode leaving three Filipino navy personnel injured. These confrontations are part of a broader strategy by China to assert its dominion over the South China Sea, a critical and strategic maritime corridor.

In response to China's provocations, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has indicated that China's actions constitute a crossing of the line, announcing a "response and countermeasure package" against China's "open, unabating, and illegal" aggression. The US has underscored its commitment to the region, conducting joint patrols with the Philippine military and engaging in multinational naval exercises to affirm its alliance with the Philippines and deter Chinese assertiveness.