Spike

Today, gasoline prices rise by almost P3. The trend towards lower fuel prices we saw through August and September has reversed.

The fuel price spike reflects the rise in crude oil prices globally. The most proximate cause for that spike is the possibility a full-scale regional war could break out in the Middle East.

Netanyahu’s war cabinet met last Tuesday to decide on a course of action in the aftermath of Iran’s massive missile attack on Israel last week. Feverish diplomatic efforts have been ongoing the past few days to restrain Israel’s retaliatory action. Tehran has mounted its own diplomatic campaign to get third countries to intervene to moderate Israeli action.

Earlier this year, we saw a well-choreographed skirmish between Iran and Israel. Tehran sent a barrage of missiles almost entirely intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. Israel launched its own bombardment, although this was limited to a few military targets in Iran.

This well-choreographed skirmish reflects the desire of both sides to avert a full-scale war even as they undertake hostile actions to appease their respective domestic constituencies. Through calculated diplomatic signaling, what could otherwise be a devastating regional war was avoided.

The same fine diplomacy may not work this time. There are voices in Tel Aviv that want Israel to use this opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. That will retard the Islamic state’s capacity to bomb Israel out of existence. It will buy the Jewish state a lot of time — perhaps enough time for dramatic changes to happen in Iran’s domestic politics. Under the rule of the mullahs, the entire purpose of building nuclear weapons capacity is to annihilate Israel.

There is a wide range of actions Israel may undertake to enforce its “eye for an eye” policy. The country, deeply embroiled in hot wars with the Hamas, the Hezbollah and the Houthis, could choose the same minimalist attack it launched a few months ago. This destroys a few military targets while leaving the door open to a diplomatic arrangement that avoids total war.

Or else, as it did with the Hezbollah, the Israel Defense Forces could mount a campaign of decapitation against the