Taiwan's Lai to bolster 'porcupine' defense against China threat

TAIPEI, Taiwan — The incoming Taiwanese president's best strategy to stop China from seizing the self-ruled island will likely be to bolster an agile defensive "porcupine" approach by spending more on missiles and drones.

Lessons learned from Russia's war in Ukraine about how rapidly developing drones can outfox traditional heavy weaponry suggest that Lai Ching-te will boost Taiwan's production of modern military technology after he takes over as president on Monday.

"Taiwan is taking the Chinese military threat more seriously," said Raymond Kuo, Taiwan Policy Initiative director at RAND Corporation.

"It has ramped up its production of anti-ship missiles, tested new anti-air missiles, and is on track to manufacture several thousand military drones," he said.

"I would expect those efforts to continue (under Lai) alongside purchases of US equipment and development of large platforms like the indigenous submarine."

Lai, a vocal supporter of preserving the island's sovereignty, swept to power in January elections despite warnings from Beijing that he would bring "war and decline" to Taiwan.

Beijing has vowed to eventually take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary.

Lai's victory secured an unprecedented third term for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which rejects China's claim to Taiwan.

Lai will succeed Tsai Ing-wen, who angered Beijing during her eight years in power by boosting military spending, developing Taiwan-made equipment such as submarines and ships, and strengthening ties with the United States.

Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but it has remained Taiwan's most important partner and biggest arms supplier.

Beijing maintains a near-daily presence of fighter jets, drones and naval ships around the island in what experts call "grey zone" actions -- tactics that fall short of an act of war.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Beijing during a visit to China in April to avoid "provocative" measures during Lai's inauguration on Monday.

Taiwan authorities have detected dozens of Chinese aircraft near the island in recent days.

Beijing, which regards Lai as a "dangerous separatist", is expected to