The coup virus

Is the coup virus still alive, and after a long sleep, being reawakened?

The prospect of a coup used to spook Philippine presidents, because of the ouster of the first Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and then Joseph Estrada in 2001 in military-backed popular uprisings.

Former president Rodrigo Duterte denies trying to stir up destabilization efforts against the Marcos administration, which seems bent on stripping his daughter dearest of P650 million in confidential funds for 2024.

Duterte admitted meeting with some former military generals, but insisted that destabilization and coup plots were not on the menu.

A retired military chief being linked to the alleged destabilization has described the story as hogwash, and those hurling the accusations as nutcases.

On the other hand, another ex-soldier claims that Duterte has in fact been plotting a coup along with mostly retired police officers who are products of the Philippine Military Academy.

There is, of course, a difference between destabilization efforts and actual plotting of a coup, and between plotting and launching a coup d’état.

And there’s a wide stretch between a launch and success. Only two coup attempts have succeeded in this country, the last way back in 2001. Both required a massive, dramatic outpouring of public support that became known as people power.

After EDSA Dos, the public disappointment with its principal beneficiary, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, soured Filipinos to people power. This could be gleaned from the failed mutinies against GMA throughout her nine years in power.

By most indications, Filipinos’ people power fatigue is long-term. But what about a coup? Has the military completely rid itself of the coup virus?

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Veteran mutineer Antonio Trillanes believes the coup virus is just in hibernation, and can still be reawakened, if military unrest is not sufficiently addressed.

In the 16 months of the Marcos administration, Trillanes cited two issues that particularly rankled military personnel, both in the active service and retired.

The first was the controversy over fixed terms of top military officers. The second was the proposal to overhaul the pension system for military and