The week ahead
It’s a holiday-shortened week, and the out-of-office replies tell me that it’s probably going to be very quiet.
> PH: There are a lot of stockholders’ meetings planned, but we don’t have any big technical events on the schedule.
> International: We will get a whole slew of speeches from US Fed and Fed-adjacent speakers on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then the US markets will be closed on June 19 in recognition of Juneteenth Day. On Friday we’ll get the jobless claims report.
MB bottom-line: Maybe the PSE will just patiently slip sideways for a while longer as everyone waits to get a little direction from what’s happening in the US and what our own BSP will do with interest rates. Feels like we’ve been slipping sideways for a year or more already, but I want to caution against binary thinking about this waiting period: if/when the central banks execute their pivot and begin to cut rates (like the Bank of Canada did last week), the reality is that prices aren’t coming down and rates are still going to be high (and feel high) for years. A 25 basis point drop from high rates is not going to make a material difference to borrowers who are drowning under the weight of increased payments on their debt. Just something to keep in mind.
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