Ukraine’s waning Western support

When Russia invaded in February 2022, the courage, determination and skill of Ukrainian fighters quickly captured imaginations in Europe and the United States. Once Russian forces were forced to abandon plans to win a decisive victory, Western leaders moved to help Kyiv. From the beginning, US and European officials worked hard to avoid an expansion of the war to bring NATO into direct conflict with Russia, but Western military, financial and humanitarian assistance began to flow in increasingly impressive volumes.

But 21 months of war have now made clear that Ukraine can’t post a quick victory either. Russian forces still occupy about 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory, and though threats to other parts of the country have been limited to missile and drone attacks, Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive has failed to change the war. In occupied Ukraine and in Moscow, Russians have dug in for a war of attrition that Putin believes his forces are better equipped than Ukraine to endure.

This reality has raised new questions in America and Europe about just how long they can afford to help. Though Western leaders can see that Putin has little current incentive to bargain with Zelensky, they’ve begun to push privately for an opening of talks. In the United States, a growing number of conservative Republicans have adopted the isolationist views of Donald Trump, their party’s likely 2024 presidential candidate, that Ukraine is taking advantage of gullible Biden administration officials and beleaguered American taxpayers. In addition, many Republican lawmakers see Ukraine aid as a legislative bargaining chip they can use to force Democrats to make concessions on other issues. And given Trump’s well-known skepticism of the value of US alliances in general and of NATO in particular, continued military and financial aid for Ukraine will be a flashpoint in next year’s US elections.

President Biden understands that US allies, especially in Europe, fear Washington will again become an unreliable security and trade partner. He has made Ukraine a cornerstone of his foreign policy and offered repeated promises that the United States will back Ukraine “for as long as it