What will happen when China invades Taiwan?

It is of common knowledge that the Communist Party of China views Taiwan as a rogue state within China’s greater sovereign domain. By constitutional mandate, China is committed to unify Taiwan with the mainland either by peaceful means or by force.

With Taiwan asserting its independence, an invasion of the island state by China is likely at some point in the future. Some analysts speculate that it could take place in 2027 in conjunction with the centennial anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. Others believe that a Chinese invasion will not occur within the next decade for three reasons. One, China’s economy is in bad shape and Beijing is not in a financial position to finance a war. China’s military is not strong enough to face America’s barrier of deterrence in the first island chain. Third, China plays the long game and is waiting for America to weaken.

No one really knows when China will make its move. But nations are preparing for the eventuality, as they rightfully should.

For years, the US has maintained strategic ambiguity as to whether it will defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. This ambiguity was broken in September 2022 when President Joe Biden declared that America would indeed come to Taiwan’s defense. With this, a showdown between the world’s two superpowers could very well ensue.

ASEAN is expected to maintain neutrality in this armed conflict since its member-states have interests to protect from both the US and China.

But neutrality is not an option for the Philippines. The Philippines and the US are bound by a Mutual Defense Treaty and the Philippines has granted America access over its airspace, maritime domain and nine military bases. As such, the Philippines, along with Japan, will be the de facto launching site of American military action. Moreover, the Luzon Strait and the West Philippine Sea are expected to be theaters of conflict, thus, dragging the Philippines into war.

A war over Taiwan will have far reaching implications on the Filipino people, its economy and its future.

For one, fear of being caught in the crossfire will spark a refugee crisis among Filipinos similar to the Vietnamese refugee crisis of 1975. Those