Why China keeps ramming Philippine ships and where that’s headed

The latest clashes in the tense South China Sea feature China’s coast guard wielding knives and an axe, firing water cannons and ramming Philippine vessels.
The hostilities between China and the Philippines continue to draw global attention though other Asian countries also stake claims on the resource-rich seas. A new flashpoint has opened between the two nations recently — the Sabina Shoal — just weeks after Beijing and Manila agreed to ease tensions in another hot spot.
The developments raise the stakes for the US, which is treaty bound to help defend the Philippines from any armed attack in the South China Sea.

Washington could find itself dragged into a direct conflict with Beijing, making the South China Sea, at times more dangerous than the Taiwan Strait, observers say.
“Philippine-China strategic relations boil down to a cold war that may turn to a hot war if mishandled,” said Chester Cabalza, who heads a Manila-based security think tank.

Why are tensions rising now?
The Philippines’ maritime strategy has seen a dramatic shift under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr who took office in June 2022. Marcos discarded his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s non-confrontational approach in the South China Sea and has become more assertive, backed by the US.
Marcos granted the US military access to more Philippines bases, including those facing the South China Sea and Taiwan in early 2023, much to Beijing’s chagrin. The Philippines also increased missions in the disputed waters, including resupplying the country’s lone outpost, a dilapidated World War II-era ship which has been fortified, after years of worry that it would fall apart.

China, which claims much of the waters for itself, has been trying to block these missions and assert its expansive maritime claims. These have led to more frequent — and increasingly violent — clashes, which the Philippines publicizes. That’s a strategy that Beijing has recently adopted. The encounters have caused damage to Philippine vessels and crew injuries.
Both nations tried to ease tensions around the Philippines’ military outpost in Second Thomas Shoal through a pact, only to have the clashes shift to nearby Sabina Shoal. The airspace