Why the Philippines May Take China to Court—Again—Over the South China Sea

Ten years ago, the Philippines lodged a complaint to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, taking issue with China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea, which China used to justify building military outposts in the disputed waterway. When the U.N.-backed tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines and against China in 2016, the decision was lauded as a “great victory,” akin to David’s defeat of Goliath.

But China treats the ruling as nothing more than “a piece of waste paper,” in the words of its foreign ministry, and has instead continued to aggressively assert its ownership of the sea, even using military-grade lasers and water cannons. Yet despite Beijing’s open defiance of the 2016 ruling, the Philippines is reportedly considering bringing China back to court. Experts say a new case—and even probably victory again for the Philippines—is unlikely to have any practical effect on Beijing, but Philippine authorities appear to understand this and, wary of military escalation, seem more interested in chipping further away at the image China tries to fashion for itself as a strict adherent to a “rules-based international order.” 

Read More: China Is Testing How Hard It Can Push in the South China Sea Before Someone Pushes Back

“To be dealt with a first defeat legally is one thing,” Collin Koh, a maritime affairs expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, tells TIME. “But if you are dealt with a second legal defeat, again, I don't think it actually reflects very well on China's reputation.” Koh says the seven years since the last international ruling is a long time, and a new case building on the previous one would inject renewed vigor into global scrutiny of China’s actions in the South China Sea.

This time around, the Philippines’ case may center around the damage China’s activities have allegedly wrought on the marine environment. The Philippine Coast Guard surveyed a reef last month within the country’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone and found “extensive damage.” The country’s solicitor general said last week he is deliberating whether to launch legal action against China and is waiting for an