186th DBCC Joint Statement

Review of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Assumptions

and Fiscal Program for FY 2023 to 2028

December 15, 2023

Given the positive developments in the Philippine economy and the recent global trends, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has revisited the government’s medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, fiscal program, and growth targets for FYs 2023 to 2028.

Real Growth Projections

With robust domestic demand and broad-based expansion in major sectors, the Philippine economy grew by 5.5 percent in the first three quarters of the year, sustaining its position as one of the best-performing economies in the Asia-Pacific Region. More importantly, the corresponding GDP per capita is above pre-pandemic levels. This growth momentum is expected to continue for the rest of the year and surpass that of our neighboring countries. 

Year

Growth Assumptions

(in percentage)

2023

6.0 - 7.0

2024

6.5 - 7.5

2025-2028

6.5 - 8.0

As a result, we have maintained our growth targets at 6.0 to 7.0 percent for 2023. Meanwhile, the growth target for 2024 has been narrowed to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 8.0 percent, while retaining the 6.5 to 8.0 percent growth assumption for 2025 to 2028.

Macroeconomic Assumptions 

The DBCC has also approved the following revisions to the macroeconomic assumptions based on emerging data:

Indicator

2023

2024 

2025 - 2028

Inflation (%)

6.0

2.0 - 4.0

2.0 - 4.0

Dubai crude oil (USD/bbl)

82 - 85

70 - 90

65 - 85

Forex (Php/USD)

55.50 - 56.00

55.00 - 58.00

55.00 - 58.00

Exports of goods, BPM6 (%)

-4.0

5.0

6.0

Imports of goods, BPM6 (%)

-3.0

7.0

8.0

The average inflation rate for 2023 is expected to settle at 6.0 percent. Following the monetary policy actions being undertaken by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the strategies being implemented by the Administration, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook, and consistent with macroeconomic developments and outlook, the inflation rate is expected to return to the target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent in 2024 until 2028. 

Meanwhile, the assumption for the Dubai crude oil price for 2023 has been narrowed to USD 82 to 85 per