Civilizational

There is reason to fear that the longer Israel’s war against Hamas continues, the greater the possibility of opening up civilizational fissures.

One influential political scientist did warn years ago that international tensions will likely be defined by what he calls “the clash of civilizations.” This prospect was stark after the 9/11 attacks in the US.

In the aftermath of the challenge posed by terror groups, the US embarked on some sort of pacification mission against strongmen in the Middle East and eventually a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan. That strategy did not go very well. The fall of tyrants in Iraq and Libya opened up other lines of division in these societies long subordinated precisely by tyrannical rule.

The US military campaign against the Saddam Hussein regime spawned resistance from Islamist radicals, boosting the influence of Al-Qaeda and then the Islamic State. Radicals wove themselves into the wider democratization struggles, dubbed the “Arab Spring,” and eventually took control of the Syrian resistance to the Assad dictatorship.

Today, Syria and Libya continue to be beset by civil wars defined along tribal and sectarian lines. Parts of Iraq remain under the sway of militias supported by neighboring Iran. The Taliban has since returned to power in Afghanistan, threatening to push this society back to the medieval period.

The mullahs are, of course, firmly entrenched in Iran. Their ability to stay in power depends on cultivating fundamentalist belief systems, suppressing anything that might look like “westernization” and arming radical militias around the region. Among these radical militias are the Hamas in Gaza and the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Iran’s main rival for influence in the region, Saudi Arabia, has been alarmed by Tehran’s rising influence. The Saudis are prepared to finally recognize the State of Israel as a means to neutralize Iran’s clout.

The Saudis and the Iranians are locked in a proxy war in Yemen. Jeddah supports the internationally recognized government while Iran arms the Houthi rebels. Over the past few days, Houthi rebels have fired several cruise missiles aimed at Israel.

There are increasing indications that