Fewer tropical cyclones expected this year

THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it is expecting up to 16 tropical cyclones this year, one or two of them next month.

The number is lower compared than the annual average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones, said Ana Solis said, chief of PAGASA’s Climate and Monitoring and Prediction Section.

Solis, in a radio interview, said the country starts to experience tropical cyclones normally as early as January. This year, the country’s first tropical cyclone came just this month, typhoon “Aghon,” because of the El Niño phenomenon.

“2024 is unusual because we have below-average rainfall conditions (due to El Niño), we have less tropical cyclones at the start of the year,” she said.

“Then towards the end of the year, we’ll possibly experience above average rainfall conditions (due to La Niña). So we could experience both extreme weather and climate events this year,” she added.

Solis said one or two of the tropical cyclones expected this year may be experienced next month.

“In July, we’re expecting two or three; August, two or three, until October,” she said.

Solis said the tropical cyclones in October are expected to bring above normal rainfall.

PAGASA on Wednesday declared the onset of the rainy season. It cited the occurrence of scattered rain showers, frequent thunderstorms, passage of Aghon, and the southwest monsoon as parameters for the declaration.

Solis said El Niño is in the “decaying stage.”

“In the near future, in the coming weeks, its possible PAGASA will be issuing the final El Niño advisory.”

As to the La Niña, Solis said it may start in the July-August-September period.

The official death toll from typhoon Aghon has increased to six persons with one confirmed injured, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said yesterday.

The Camp Aguinaldo-based NDRRMC reported one confirmed death as of Wednesday — a 14-year-old female who was hit by a fallen tree in Misamis Oriental last May 24.

Yesterday, the council confirmed five more Aghon-related deaths, all in Quezon. Three of these deaths are in Lucena City — two due to fallen trees and the other due to drowning, the NDRRMC