PH growth seen missing targets this year to 2026

THE World Bank continues to expect Philippine economic growth to fall below target this year up to 2026 amid a clouded regional outlook.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank retained its growth forecast for 2024 at 5.8 percent, below the government's downwardly-revised 6.0- to 7.0-percent goal.

Those for 2025 and 2026 were set at 5.9 percent each, respectively also lower than the 6.5- to 7.5-percent and 6.5- to 8.0-targets announced in March.

The forecasts — still among the highest for emerging Asian economies — are only topped by Cambodia, which is seen growing by 5.8 percent this year, 6.1 percent next year and 6.4 percent in 2026.

Vietnam — forecast to grow by 5.5 percent this year — is expected to overtake the Philippines in 2025 and 2026 with expansions of 6.0 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.

For the wider East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, the World Bank forecast growth of 4.8 percent this year, down from 5.1 percent in 2023, as a slowdown in China offsets faster growth in several other economies.

While up from the previous forecast of 4.5 percent, it pointed out that the «growth in China continues to slow, outweighing a slight pickup elsewhere in the region.»

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China was forecast to post growth of 4.8 percent this year, down from 5.2 percent in 2023 but better than the earlier projection of 4.5 percent.

Growth will likely slow further to 4.1 percent next year, lower than the previous forecast of 4.3 percent, and 4.0 in 2026.

EAP growth, meanwhile, is expected to further soften next year and 2026 at 4.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.

«Over the forecast horizon, GDP growth in most EAP economies except China — including Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines — will be anchored by solid growth of private consumption supported by low inflation, declining borrowing costs, and firm labor market conditions,» the World Bank said.

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«However, both private and public investment are projected to remain subdued,» it added.

It also said that heightened uncertainty — stemming from recent political transitions, conflicts, and global trade policy concerns — was likely to dampen private investment.

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