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The week ahead

PH:  While we had the OceanaGold PH [OGP 12.50, down 6.2%; 100% avgVol] IPO yesterday, the biggest waves will be made on Thursday when the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) meets to evaluate our interest rate situation. The Union Bank [UBP 34.60, down 6.0%; 83% avgVol] stock rights offer period will also start on Thursday

International:  The only datapoint that I’m following for this week is the US April inflation report, which we should get early Thursday morning.

MB bottom-line: The inflation metagame is where my mind’s at these days, and that’s all about inflation expectations. Not so much where inflation “is”, but where people (and companies) think inflation “will be” in the future. Inflation expectations matter because they can cause dramatic changes. For individuals, expectations of higher inflation can lead to changes in purchasing behavior and higher wage demands. For corporations, expectations of higher inflation can cause companies to increase their prices. I think you can see why the US Federal Reserve and the BSP are most afraid of these expectations; they’re something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. There should be a lot of analysis to consume on this point after the US CPI report is out on Thursday morning.


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