PH growth to remain one of region's highest

THE Philippines will remain one of the fastest-growing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economies even as a slowdown in China weighs on the region's expansion, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

In its latest Global Economic Outlook, the Washington-based financial institution retained its estimate of 2023 growth of 5.6 percent and 2024 forecast of 5.8 percent for the country.

Both fall short of the government's 6.0-7.0 percent and 6.5-7.5 percent targets for both years, respectively, but are still among the highest among 23 EAP emerging market and developing economies that include China and Pacific Island states.

The 2023 estimate of 5.6 percent, unchanged from October when the World Bank trimmed its forecast from 6.0 percent, matches that for Mongolia and is only surpassed by Samoa (8.0 percent) and Fiji (7.6 percent).

It is the highest among the eight Southeast Asian nations in the list — Cambodia is second at 5.4 percent — and also surpasses the 5.2-percent expansion seen for China.

Full-year gross domestic product (GDP) results will be announced by the Philippine Statistics Authority at the end of this month. Growth as of the end of the third quarter was a below-target 5.5 percent.

The 2024 forecast of 5.8 percent, meanwhile, is only topped by those for Palau (12.4 percent) and Mongolia (6.2 percent) and is matched by Cambodia.

Philippine economic growth, however, is expected to stay unchanged at 5.8 percent in 2025, during which Palau (11.9 percent), Mongolia (6.4 percent), Vietnam (6.0 percent), and Cambodia (6.1) percent are forecast to perform better.

The outlook also falls below the government's medium-term goal of 6.5-8.0 percent.

Regional outlook

For the EAP overall, the World Bank expects growth to have accelerated to 5.1 percent last year from 3.4 percent in 2022, driven mainly by a short-lived surge in China due to the lifting of pandemic restrictions.

Problems in the real estate sector and weak demand for its exports, however, are now weighing on the region's largest economy and growth is forecast to slow to 4.5 percent this year and further to 4.3 percent in 2025.

«Growth in EAP is forecast to decelerate to 4.5 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, largely